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No Going Back: Stability toward 2020 Economic Relevance Instead of Chaos. by Cletus E. Olebunne
May 1st, 2007
Nigeria’s economy had been shackled for decades by misappropriations and misplaced priorities. We managed to “produce” oil and little to nothing else of interest to the market economies. Then came the late reforms (too early to say whether a success or failure) of the Obasanjo administration and the newly embraced “free market” with million-dollar fortunes mainly in natural resources and contracts scooped by young businessmen and women with ties to the governing party. This is the reality of capitalist free market economy packaged under democracy. At the same time, many average Nigerians found themselves on the bottom part of economic ladder, wondering how they can pull themselves into middle class. This is not my concept of government-business relations as I wrote in the April 2007 article. While I do not expect, every Nigerian to belong to the same economic class, since all fingers are not created equal, a true 2020 economic relevance will be a Nigeria where even though billionaires and millionaires are present, Nigerians should be far better of than there are now in the year 2007. And that is, a Nigeria where middle class existence has been stabilized and continues to grow with the population. Achieving continued and stable reforms towards economic relevance in the year 2020 will require an entrepreneurial economic revolutionary strategic mindset and approach irrespective of the party government in power. In essence, there should be a selfless mindset. Nigeria has never had it good for a long time; there is a great opportunity in free-market economy that goes beyond privatization, and seeing these great opportunities and benefits of economic diversification will not only create stability toward 2020 economic relevance, it will bring hope to younger generations who can apply their entrepreneurial ideas in the global competitive free market economy sweeping the globe in the twenty-first century knowledge-intensive competitive. In this era of high oil prices, Nigeria’s main natural resource that provides over 80% of its annual revenue: “diversification now” show be the momentum builder towards 2020 economic relevance. If we can for once, shift our focus from monolithic product and diversify into consumer-goods production and continued growth in the real-estate sector with the growing populations, 2020 economic relevance can be achieved. The banking industry has been very active in its global reaches, unfortunately, the global reaches of the oil industry is via foreign multinational proxies. Unlike the recent expansion of Russian largest oil producer, Lukoil in the West (Unites States), Nigeria oil business has remained localized in the retail business. Our ability to grow into economic relevance may very well depend on how we managed diversification, and development of business leaders by carrying along the younger generations who through proper competitive educational programs in knowledge-intensive industries can very well compete with the rest of the world. No question about it, Nigeria has a very good number of highly educated people, but the picture does not reflect that because of how the educated class is put to use. Economic diversification into knowledge-intensive industries of science, technology, and business, requires that the government have structural strategies that will harmonize individual entrepreneurial efforts of the educated class. In a previous article “True Management as the Removal of Obstacles”, while in that article I stated the importance of removing obstacles as a way to move ahead, it is equally important to be able to harmonize positive individual efforts and ideas through support by provision of enabling environments. With the winding down of present administration and the incoming of the next administration, continued removal of the worst obstacle (corruption) that gum up commerce should take center stage in obstacle removal. While remaining apolitical of the corruption issue and how this monster issue is being fought, my point of interest is its effects on commerce. For those who have engaged in international businesses, experience has shown that transparency and due diligence are the two ingredients in all business collaborations and partnerships. Poster child, scapegoat, or what ever you may want to call it, stability toward 2020 economic relevance requires that various communities: private and public learn the concepts of transparency and due diligence. Transparency and due diligence as the ingredients of fiscal responsibility will not only help in the growing national reserve, but will also direct national reserve spending in the needed economic diversification. Although, the late reform has not trickled down economically, the most achievement so far is the sense of direction that has replaced the no direction that dominated previous years. This sense of direction may not be as clear as to everyone’s understanding, the mindset should be that of “No Going Back”. No going back until Nigeria’s goal of economic relevance and her ambition to assert economic power on the international stage has been achieved. Accomplishing this will also require that we avoid the problem of monolithic economy, especially, those of oil-economy that has little or no impact on knowledge-economy in the innovative market. Nigeria since the discovering of oil has lived the so-called “Dutch disease”, where manufacturing has been ignored. Although, petrodollar has help Nigeria pay down it foreign debt, it still remains to see how the government will manage the growing foreign reserve into trickled down economy into diversification. The biggest challenge will not only be in the use of the growing foreign reserve but every effort must be employed to prevent politicians known to be big frivolous spenders from getting their hands in whatever is in the reserve, if not already allocated for future spending. There is so finite development in commodity (oil) economy, achieving economy relevance will more depend on building knowledge-intensive economy through proper education programs, focusing on consumer goods production (manufacturing). There is no ingenuity in commodity or natural resource based economy, but greed, corruption, lack of skilled human-capital, and instability. Key to the No Going Back concept is economic diversity and building of entrepreneurial cultural mindset particularly in manufacturing. Oil economy has been shown to atrophy an economy, making the overall economy non-competitive, with minimal jobs created in commodity trading and ignoring the manufacturing sector with the highest proven job creation. Cletus E. Olebunne Executive Director NEL |