Vision 20-20-20: Reality or Rhetoric—Nigeria’s GDP must hit $800bn to realize 202020 dream

 The Group Managing Director (GMD) of troubled Transcorp, Tom Iseghohi says that among other basic economic indices that Nigeria must attain, its Gross Domestic Products (GDP) must hit between $500 and $800 billion if it must rank among the 20 most industrialized countries by 2020.

The present government refers to this drive as the Vision 20-20-20. Isegholi, once a member of America’s prestigious Fortune 500, said at the present rate, Belgium, which ranks 20th on the global development index, has a GDP of $400 billion—four times that of Nigeria, and as such, Nigeria must make concerted efforts to surpass Belgium’s present worth by 2020 to belong to that club of the 20 most industrialized nations.

The Transcorp GMD, who was speaking during the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Business Law Forum at the Transcorp Hilton in Abuja last month, however, lauded the present government’s for insisting on the rule of law, due process and strong stance against corruption.

“To have any chance at becoming among the top 20 economies by 2020, we must first understand who is presently on the list, how they got there and what we must achieve to be on the list,” he said.

He listed the US, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and Germany as among the first five most developed economies while France, Australia and Belgium as among the last three respectively. He used what he said is the “Global Competitiveness Index Ranking” to arrive at his conclusion

“Brazil was on the list in 2006 with a GDP of $I trillion. It is interesting to note that in 1983, Brazil’s GDP was only $147 billion. It is also interesting to note that neither India nor Brazil made the list in 2008, even after India has done remarkably well in the last 20 years.

“It is, therefore, clear that even beyond growth, there are other variables that are important in making the list. “Number 20, Belgium made the list with a GDP of $400 billion (about four times that of Nigeria). Where will Belgium be in 15 years from now?

“It is our present point of view that for Nigeria to make this list by 2020, Nigeria will have to achieve a GDP range of between $500 and $800 billion,” he said.

According to him, for Nigeria to meet this goal, it must make massive investment in infrastructure, develop its very resourceful human capita and build a National Brand.

“Nigeria must sustain its rule of law, support local companies, improved on its securities and engaged the Diaspora,” he added. “We are a one commodity economy and need to diversify.

Do you know that we can produce more cocoa than the Ivory Coast? Enough food to feed the entire continent? That 80% of the tomatoes we produce rot on the farms; that we have glut of cassava, which can be used to manufacture industrial starch and ethanol? That we have all the raw materials to get involved in the flavors and sweetening business—an industry that is worth $250 billion or the $400 billion outsourcing industry by leveraging our human capacity?” he charged the participants.

Isegholi said Nigeria must identify its unique potential and work hard towards dominating as a means to increasing its GDP. He cited India and China as two countries that have used this to their advantages.

The most illustration of this example is Finland. Isegholi said until 1990, Finland was a remote, sleepy country near USSR, but that 11 years later, Finland became a significant player in the global economy by identifying what it was uniquely good at, Nokia mobile phones.

“Today Nokia has sales of $60 billion, employs over 60,000 people and operates in over 130 countries. Only one company out of this has added $60 billion to Finland’s GDP on an annual basis," he said.

April 2, 2008